Summer Spending?

With talk of £100m being available for summer transfers, a look at our projected cash position and how the close-season business might be achieved

Paul The Esk 27/05/2021 78comments  |  Jump to last

With yet another “big summer” looming for Everton and claims that Moshiri will fund player acquisitions drawn up by Ancelotti and Brands by perhaps as much as £100 million, knowing what our cash position is, and knowing how we might fund player acquisitions this summer is of interest to all Evertonians.

Predicting cash flow from outside an organisation is a notoriously difficult task. However it is possible to give a range with reasonable accuracy. The accounts providing a starting point and provide information such as opening cash balances and amounts due to be paid and received in the following twelve months. It is also reasonable to predict operating revenues and costs, the main difficulty is in predicting cash flows from transfer activity and any changes to creditor and debtor positions throughout the year.

So what is Everton’s cash position?

The 20219/2020 accounts showed a cash position of £56.4 million as at the 30 June 2020. That sounds pretty healthy and with incoming transfer spend of £67.38 million in the transfer window one might assume that Everton’s finances were relatively healthy in the early days of the pandemic.

However various liabilities were due to be paid in 2020/21 including repayments of loans, £58.7 million and deferred payments to HMRC of £40.16 million. Trade creditors due were £65.4 million and trade debtors £55.6 million.  Thus cash movements out of the club of £108.66 million. If we assume 50% of the transfer fees from last summer were paid at the time of the transfer, that adds another £34 million, making a total of £142.66 million.

I have projected cash outflows of £37.5 million from normal operating activities, and it is expected that continued costs relating to Bramley-Moore may be as high as £20 million.

As a result there is close to £200 million of negative cash flow out of the club before finance and investing activities are considered.

It is known from the details surrounding the share placement that Moshiri provided £50 million in November 2020 and an additional £50 million just after the share placement, therefore providing £100 million of new cash.

The remaining negative cash flow will therefore be funded by existing cash reserves (£56.4 million as at 30 June 2020) and new borrowings from Rights and Media Funding. It is believed we have credit facilities of £80 million with this funder. If we used all of this facility (and the new charges added at the beginning of May suggest we are close to that). In addition, 2021/22 season ticket receipts of at least £10 million will be received. This suggests we probably have cash balances of around £45 million. TV broadcasting money will also be received but given they are to meet operating costs and wages I am not including them in any calculations.

However the cash balance of around £45 million cannot just be spent on transfers, the club continues to lose money on day to day operations – my projections suggest around £3 million a month. Additionally, the club has future liabilities to meet including net £23 million on previous transfers, plus the outstanding £34 million (assuming last summer’s transfers were paid over two years).

Thus any war chest for incoming transfers must be met from one of three sources, (i) an increase in borrowings (ii) the sale of players or (iii) further capital injections by Farhad Moshiri.

Let’s look at the possibilities:

(i) an increase in borrowings. Highly unlikely in my opinion given the club will continue to lose money on its day to day operations for the foreseeable future, our wages and operating costs outstripping expected income. The level of external borrowings will also be of concern to potential lenders re Bramley-Moore.

(ii) A sale of players. As in recent years, Brands will continue to be charged with the task of moving expensive players on – a task made difficult by the performance levels of those on offer and their contract demands in a post pandemic environment.  Walcott, Bolasie, Besic, Pennington, and King have left/will leave the club as free agents. Whilst the reduction in wages is welcome, the club receives no compensation from their next clubs. It is possible that we receive offers for Bernard, Kenny, Delph, Tosun (although still injured) and Gomes, however being realistic, the fees are not going to be high if indeed their contract terms could be matched elsewhere.  In the context of bringing in new players, relying upon the sales of these players seems fraught with risk and minimal return. That leaves us the sale of sellable assets. Of the existing squad Moise Kean seems the most likely early sale (selling him before June 30 would assist Everton’s Profit & Loss account for this financial year). What sort of fee? Perhaps upwards of £40 million? Useful, but again not sufficient to meet Ancelotti’s acquisition plans. So who else? We are now looking at core players, the players ideally we would like to build a team around not dispose to potential opponents in future European competitions. I suppose Richarlison is the most likely candidate. Reluctantly from my perspective, but a fee of £70 million plus, if achievable, would probably represent good value if re-invested in productive players.

(iii) Further funding from Moshiri. There is speculation that Moshiri will provide funding of £100 million for the acquisition of players. I think this has to be treated with caution. Whilst it is true there are an outstanding 33,333 shares priced at £3,000 each which are at his disposal, it is my understanding that this was ear-marked for his contribution to Bramley-Moore, or in the event it is not required a further conversion of existing shareholder debt into equity.  Either scenario would not provide additional funding for player purchases. In addition, spending £100 million on say four players would add something in the region of £45 million to our annual costs and therefore losses (assuming £5m a year wages for each player and four year contracts).

Summary

It is clear that Ancelotti expects support in the transfer market and to be fair to Moshiri, he has continued to fund transfer activity from his own pocket, especially when we have not been able to dispose of player assets. But each year it gets increasingly more difficult to keep adding costs to a business that currently has limited upside in terms of revenue (especially with not qualifying for Europe). We already are a heavily loss making business and in the absence of a massive increase of revenue we will continue to be so.

For me, the sale of Moise Kean and Richarlison (however reluctantly I type that) are the only viable solutions – gross receipts of over £100 million and a reduction in wages and amortisation costs for the two (I’d estimate at over £20 million a year savings) would give the space and the cash resources for Ancelotti’s acquisitions; Moshiri throwing £100 million into the club without player sales would just produce greater financial problems down the road.

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Reader Comments (78)

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Joseph Jobe
1 Posted 27/05/2021 at 22:27:30
What about more of Asaminov's involvement? He hinted earlier in the year about investing in Everton, methinks there may be something stirring in the air there... 🤔
Brian Wilkinson
2 Posted 27/05/2021 at 22:54:58
Very well put again Paul, with the money Moshiri has, and the Dirty Dozen getting a slap on the wrist for breaking rules, then what would happen in the following scenario..

We got those players, off the book this season, who contracts end, we then decided to take drastic action, to try close the gap on the top 6, bring in say 3 or four top top quality players, who take us well over the 𧴜 Million threshold, but would make our team so much better.

If a points deduction, surely a stronger team over the course of the season, would gain those points lost.

12-month transfer ban? Again if we get the players in, we could ride the 12-month transfer ban.

I am not saying let's do this, but at the same time, with the big teams getting a free hit, what would stop Everton going all out to land strength in every department, give us a fighting chance, against the elite.

Those at the top will remain at the top, unless someone does a Man City, and spends big, even if in the short term we might get our hands tied for a season.

If the sides out of the top 4 sticks to the 𧴥 Million FFP limit, but the top 4 get to spend more, with regular Champions League income, sponsorship, and tv rights, the top 4 are just going to go from strength to strength, while the rest are getting left further behind.

So again, unless someone like Everton go all out to try and sign much better quality, and in doing so, we blast our FFP llimits out of the water, will the punishment, outweigh the longer term benefit of building a much stronger side?

Derek Thomas
3 Posted 28/05/2021 at 00:55:26
Paul & Brian @1; I think FFP is just a deadman walking, City ran over it with 㿞M worth of Lawyers and Covid is in the process of reversing back and forth over the corpse to make sure it's properly finished.

Clubs are, or will be, in the process of declaring 100s of millions of debt for the next 2 or 3 seasons – hence the Super League.

FFP, has already been 'sort of' temporarily put on hold-ish... and we all know there's nothing as permanent as a temporary measure – when it suits them.

The Premier League and/or UEFA / FIFA, maybe given the choice of let our benefactor put money in sans FFP, or watch us possibly go under.

But *puts on paranoid head* if anybody will get jumped on, it will be us, big enough to show an example, but not big enough to really matter (yet) in the big picture.

That is the gamble... glad it's not my money!

James Flynn
4 Posted 28/05/2021 at 01:10:21
Whatever the spending is, we need talent in the midfield. If some of that talent are young and untried yet clearly skilled?

Happy to wait another season or two for them to learn their trade. A tack steering Leicester in the right direction.

I say again. It isn't Carlos, it's Brands.

Kieran Kinsella
5 Posted 28/05/2021 at 02:06:23
Paul

I read in The Athletic that Everton are “seeking 𧴜M on new investment specifically for transfers.” Is that the alleged Moshiri input or are they indicating that new investment may come from a new source? Or at least what's your opinion on that report?

John Zapa
6 Posted 28/05/2021 at 03:29:21
Spending 𧴜M+ when the payroll is already over 85% of turnover, is definitely a huge risk. I feel Moshiri will keep rolling the dice in hope of some kind of victory to justify his investment, such as a cup or Champions League football.

Unfortunately the entire club set-up and management is not geared towards winning and competing at the top end, so whatever amount he spends now on transfers will end up being a bill that someone later will have to settle.

Kieran Kinsella
7 Posted 28/05/2021 at 03:49:35
John 6,

I'm thinking Moshiri is following the Inter Milan or Portsmouth model.

Tony Everan
8 Posted 28/05/2021 at 07:38:43
𧴜M+ spending will be right this summer but it won't be a net spend. I think, as Paul tentatively says, that Richarlison as well as Kean (maybe Mina) could be sold – if big enough offers come in – to fund a substantially remodelled team. I think Carlo is exasperated by the current options and wants a team / squad he can call his own next season.
Robert Tressell
9 Posted 28/05/2021 at 08:25:22
Paul, another excellent article thank you. Since the cost of arrivals must be funded, at least in part, by departures, I was looking at our net spend relative to our rivals yesterday. I was surprised to find only Arsenal, Chelsea, Man City and Man Utd have a higher net spend than our 𧶷m in the last 5 years. We are neck and neck with Villa (𧶶m) and then next up are Wolves (𧶎m), Spurs (𧶄m) and Brighton (𧶀m). Leicester have a net spend of 䀈m and Liverpool 𧴪m.

This tells me a few things I knew and a few things I didn't.

1. Promoted clubs tend to have to splurge in order to stay up – Leeds, Fulham and even Sheffield Utd have done this as well as Aston Villa, Wolves and Brighton. By spending about 𧵎m or so, promoted sides assemble a squad which ends up being very close to ours in quality and value.

2. Man Utd, Man City and Chelsea are the biggest spenders by a mile – with Chelsea's figures skewed by their transfer ban.

3. Arsenal, Everton and Spurs are the biggest mugs in the transfer market. Spending big (but not big enough) and getting nowhere – while clubs like Aston Villa, West Ham and Leeds edge closer and closer or overtake.

4. Liverpool and Leicester are the shrewdest operators in the market. But why? One of the key reasons is the amount of money they bring in through sales.

That is not to say they are"selling clubs" like Southampton who exist (or did exist) to buy cheap and flog high. But they accept that in a more literal sense all clubs sell players. We buy expensive and sell cheap due to the profile and quality of player we sign. Arsenal and, to some extent, Spurs are in the same boat.

Leicester and Liverpool swell the coffers for reinvestment by selling players who have increased in value. It is what has allowed them to stay in contention despite being outspent massively not just by 3 richer clubs but by 11 and 12 clubs respectively.

So, again, not only to get better but also to avoid being overtaken by yet more mid-table sides, we absolutely have to start buying cheap (generally U23 or ideally U21 with low wage demands and highest potential to increase in value) and accepting that every so often a star will be sold alongside a few who don't quite make it (like Kean, Vlasic, Lookman and Onyekuru – without whom our ability to recruit new players would be damaged badly).

Buying established (esp Premier League) players who will be sold for peanuts or free is killing our ability to reinvest when we don't have a lot of money in the first place. Only Man City, Chelsea and Man Utd can be so profligate and we're not in that league financially, nothing like it, in fact.

Kevin Prytherch
10 Posted 28/05/2021 at 08:50:25
Robert 9 - I know you've advocated this for a long time, and it is the only way we will compete. We can't spend £90 million on Maguire, or £65 on Dias so there's no point trying to compete in this market. All we will end up with is players in the category of “not quite good enough for the big teams” like Sigurdsson, Gomes, Delph etc.

We can spend heavily, but invest heavily in potential. The worst that will generally happen is that they get sold at a profit, or perhaps a small loss. What generally won't happen is we lose all our investment like we have with Walcott, Schneiderlin (almost all) and Bolasie, and like we will with Sigurdsson, Delph and Tosun.

Andrew Ellams
11 Posted 28/05/2021 at 09:11:25
How have we gone from the team that brought in Arteta, Cahill and Pienaar on great deals to the team that hugely overspends on players that aren't good enough and giving them ridiculous contracts?
Jim Bennings
12 Posted 28/05/2021 at 09:33:58
First and foremost, none of our players are irreplaceable and they should all have a price on their head if offers came.

We need a right back, right winger and a creative midfielder that can run and carry the ball.

We need a striker and a backup centre half.

Over to your Marcel and Carlo and Moshiri.

Fran Mitchell
13 Posted 28/05/2021 at 09:55:06
We are very much stuck between a rock and a hard place. The squad seriously needs investment, but having already splashed the cash and failed, is it really worth the risk?

Should we not return to our enforced frugality of the past and put the short term focus on stadium development and debt reduction, academy development and build in the long term?

But again, how often does that lead to success? Arsenal and Spurs are both examples of the decline that can occur when relative austerity is implemented to guarantee a stadium. And both clubs were in much stronger positions than we currently find ourselves.

This is where we must get transfers right. Buy low, sell high and repeat. It's the only way we can have sustainable development. Buying 20+ million players and then selling for minimal fees or free transfers is just debt acquisition.

We have I feel 4 saleable assets: DCL, Richarlison, Godfrey, and Digne.

The first two could, probably, get us 80+ million, the latter two 40. And Kean will likely be another 30-40.

Beyond that, Holgate, Kenny, Iwobi, Gomes, and Davies could all fetch between 10-15.

So one 'star' player, Kean, and 2/3 of the saleable fringe players (Kenny, Iwobi, Gomes... ideally, both Davies and Holgate I feel are worthy squad players who'll cost as much to replace).

So if we can sell,.say, Richarlison, it would probably be best for all. That he has had is poorest season - makes the decision easier but also limits his value...he doesn't seem to fit so well alongside DCL, nor suit playing wide left.

But whatever we do...I hope we buy young, sell high.

Andrew Ellams
14 Posted 28/05/2021 at 10:02:04
For player resale value, is the best model not to bring in young talented players who will stay at Everton until the best years are behind them and help generate the income via success on the field?

Does anybody really want to see Ben Godfrey stay for 2/3 years and then be sold on for a premium?

Danny O’Neill
15 Posted 28/05/2021 at 10:27:43
Now, I'm not going to contradict my previous views. When Everton sign a player, I have no interest in whether they have a resale value. I just want them to bring success on the pitch to Everton. I accept that this is a rather naive, non-business and short term view on my part.

However, finances aside (I'll leave that to Paul!!), what strikes me about this well written piece (as always) is the reflection on our recruitment and development strategy over the past several years. If you can call it a strategy that is.

We already knew it, but Paul's article starkly puts it in black and white. A collection of players drawing a considerable wage that we need to be rid of, yet either cannot find a taker, or if we do, will get minimal return of investment.

It does seem that the only saleable assets we have are Kean, who doesn't seem to want to be here and Richarlison. I'd rather keep the latter, but doubt he wouldn't be open to a move if we wanted to move him on to fund incomings. And the money we would get for him would be disproportionate to his actual value because he is a Premier League player. That carries a premium. I reckon we could replace him by uncovering someone of equal or better talent in the continental leagues for half the cost, so actually make a profit. Dare I say Liverpool kept using that operating model to good effect a few years ago. They generally went through a sequence of buying for £15 - 20M, selling on for £50M; repeat.

The only other ones I can think of are Calvert-Lewin and Godfrey. But we're not and shouldn't be going there. I feel unclean for saying it.

Kevin Prytherch
16 Posted 28/05/2021 at 10:29:21
Andrew 14 - in an ideal world that's what we would strive to do. We can't afford the best players in their prime so we try and spot them early. They either stay with us making us improve year on year, or they allow us increased funds to further improve the team.

Only a select few players stay at a club throughout their careers though. Utd, Liverpool, Chelsea, Spurs and Arsenal have all lost big name players, but the key is to maximise the value and replace with more potential - Like Leicester did with the Maguire money.

Robert Tressell
17 Posted 28/05/2021 at 10:30:10
Andrew, you're right. I'm not suggesting we buy with a view to sell. That's just a recipe for a high turnover of players, instability and possibly relegation when your luck runs out. I'm suggesting we buy with a view to players increasing in standard / value and accept that every so often one of our stars will be prised off us for big money (as happens with all clubs - Hazard, Ronaldo, Bale, Suarez and Coutinho). We did this to good effect with Lukaku and Stones. Buying young means a player like Godfrey can fill a position in the side for 10 years or be sold at a huge profit.
Tony Everan
18 Posted 28/05/2021 at 10:35:03
Robert 9. l thought that this recruitment model was one of the reasons Brands was brought in for. The trouble is in scouting young players with potential who can hit the ground running. A few defeats on the bounce, fans on their back, manager under pressure and confidence drains away from these young players. I can understand why managers want some experience in the line up.

If we bought five new players and three of them were of the quality young potential approx age 21-25, then two more 25+ I would be still happy. Maybe even a little bit more confident. There's no doubt we need players on the up with desire, enthusiasm and energy. We are a stale club that's needs reinvigorating. Only this type of recruitment will bring that fresh air in.

About six weeks ago Brendan Rodgers was giving an interview and was asked about Leicester's recruitment policy. He said something along he lines of they look for a quality athletic young player, who they perceive to be able to be trained into their system. Young players who can learn and be drilled into what they want. I think Leicester are being very thorough with the players they sign and looking beyond even their accomplishments on the pitch. There seems to be a well oiled recruitment system in place that gets it right more often than not.

Man City, Man Utd, Chelsea are streets ahead financially, but there's no reason we can't follow Leicester's model and out do them. It's not as if Leicester are a bigger club than us, it's just that they've been more professional in every aspect of running a football club.

Danny O’Neill
19 Posted 28/05/2021 at 10:44:15
Liverpool of a few years ago as well Tony.

I need to stop it, but they would sell the likes of Torres at profit and then uncover Suarez.

It was a good operating model that helped them slowly in a stepping stone approach get back to where they wanted to be.

Barry Rathbone
20 Posted 28/05/2021 at 10:55:41
Danny 19

The shite have recruited better than us since Shankly.

Lost track of how many "never heard of" players they brought in over the years to knit together as trophy winners.

By contrast we would buy flavour of the month big names only to watch them sink without trace - Rod Belfit, Mickey whatsisface from Blackpool etc.

No wonder we ended up destitute

Ian Horan
21 Posted 28/05/2021 at 11:37:07
The RS and Leicester have benefited from some unbelievable sale values Suarez was it 80 million, Coutinho 135 mill even shite like Solanki and Ibe they got 20 mill a piece. Leicester sold Maguire 85 million, Drinkwater who has sunk at Chelsea 40 mill, kante 50 mill even last summer Childwel 50 mill. Evertons problem to me is no bollicks when negotiating a sale price, even Gueye we capitulated because we want to be seen as a nice family club.. Levy at Spurs is the type of person we need negotiating our sales. Someone who gets the last ounce of blood out of the purchasers.

Let's hope Pickford is on fire at the Euros sell big and in the back ground sign Donnarumma who is out of contract

Paul [The Esk]
22 Posted 28/05/2021 at 11:38:27
Interesting comments all round, thanks to all for your contributions.

On buying to sell at a profit, this is really the only viable strategy open to Everton given our income is largely fixed in the absence of regular European football and that with our cost base we will continue to make losses for the foreseeable future.
Using players with a growing asset value will and the profits generated upon disposal is the only strategy available in the absence of some as yet unknown income source.
This is a reflection on gambling on European qualification yet failing to achieve it.

Mal van Schaick
23 Posted 28/05/2021 at 11:38:44
Good article.

Realistically, we can and I believe will sell players who don't fit into Ancelotti's plans. I think we all know who they are. Therefore, this will raise money for some recruitment.

Godfrey is a good example of a successful buy and the type of player that we require. What I don't want to see are more guessing games (Zaha) and panic buys (Delph). We need a transfer model or structure that improves the squad.

Balancing the books or carrying some debt according to FFP rules is down to the owner and board. All we can do is wait and see.

Alan McGuffog
24 Posted 28/05/2021 at 12:05:40
Ian you are spot on. If Moise Kean was on Spurs or Liverpools books would he go for anything under £50 m ? I doubt it very much.
Kevin Molloy
25 Posted 28/05/2021 at 12:15:02
my view is we will do well to get what we paid out at the moment for both Kean and Richi. Not that I want to sell Richi. Most clubs are skint, and those two just haven't been good enough to attract the big clubs.
We're in a right pickle, sadly. I've lost alot of faith in Carlo's ability to coach after the shite offered up last year, and his ability in the transfer market has also taken a massive hit now that we've had a full season of James and Allan. So as far as I'm concerned, there is a slim chance the team we watched last week is gonna start popping the ball around in eight weeks time. I think the best we can hope for is a repeat of last year. ie we get a short term lift from the new boys. But then reality will bite in the Autumn.
I think a good rule of thumb will be whether we've heard of the signings or not. If I have, I will be thinking Carlo is buying for right now rather than the future.. i'm not a huge fan of Brands but he does seem to be able to spot potential. My advice for Moshiri therefore would be to put Brands in sole charge of the ins and outs. Nightmare scenario, he gives Carlo carte blanche and we bring in Bale/Coutinho/ etc.
Martin Berry
26 Posted 28/05/2021 at 12:18:26
I remember Brands saying prior to Ancelotti's appointment that the club would only be investing in young talent with a sell on value.
I have the impression that the current Manager likes established players to try and buy improvement as oppose to gradual team improvement through younger players.
There are good hungry players out there to be bought at a fraction of the well established that might be 28+ and that come with a hefty price tag with big wages and no sell on value., That policy is the road to the poor house and I feel that its we should desperately avoid, its down to Brands and Carlo being very clever in the market, something that has been mentioned, we wait and see.
Tony Ateman
27 Posted 28/05/2021 at 12:23:59
Off topic! I renewed my season ticket this morning and opted for a smartphone ticket. The web site said it would be delivered immediately. It didn't happen. (My phone was switched off at the time, but was switched on very shortly after). Am I doing anything wrong, or are others still waiting for a smartphone ticket?
Paul Baxter
28 Posted 28/05/2021 at 12:36:27
Everyone saying we could sell Richarlison but who would buy him?
I can't see either of the Spanish clubs or any in Italy paying what we want and he isn't good enough for any of the top teams here unfortunately.
Kean is the only player we can sell to generate some money but I don't think we'll get more than we paid.
Robert Tressell
29 Posted 28/05/2021 at 12:41:48
Tony at 18, the failing to shine after a few games issue doesn't just affect u23s. It affects all signings, many of whom have had to uproot families, move from afar etc. We could sign the likes of Diaby, Bailey, Neres etc instead of Zaha. Or Dagba, Emerson, Aarons instead of Trippier. All of these young players have plenty of experience in strong leagues and even European competition. None of them are unknowns. I can't see them being a risky signing or one for tomorrow. They are all first team ready. There's a tier of lesser known players in the u21s category but the value there is even greater - with the price and wages being even lower.
Ajay Gopal
30 Posted 28/05/2021 at 12:48:30
Most of the Italian and Spanish clubs have reached breaking point: Inter Milan, winners of the Serie A, have let go of their manager because they want to sell some of their star players to reduce €80M in costs. Juventus, Barcelona and Real Madrid are still desperately clinging on to the European Super League dream because they hope for a windfall to rescue them, etc, etc. So, this summer will be interesting to see how it unfolds?

The mega transfer deals that everybody is expecting to happen:

Kylian Mbappe
Harry Kane
Neymar
Jadon Sancho
Haaland
Grealish
Lukaku
Odegaard

The size of these deals will decide the rest of the transfer window. If clubs go into a 'fire sale' mode, transfer prices are likely to crash. In that case, it may be wiser to wait until the end of the window rather than pay over the odds by diving early into the market. But, if prices are reasonable, and Moshiri has a budget, we should go in early and snap up Carlo's & Brands's targets.

I have been advocating the sale of:

Kean (㿔M)
Mina or Keane (㿅M)
Iwobi (㾶M)
Gomes (٣M)
Bernard (٣M)
Kenny (٠.5M)
Delph (ٞM)

To get us about 㿷-85M

And bring in the following:

1. Perreira (West Brom) or Buendia (Norwich) or Diaby (Leverkeusen) – 㿔M
2. John McGinn (Aston Villa) or Dwight McNeil (Burnley), Diangana (West Brom) – 㾻-20M
3. A left-back – go cheap with Trippier for 㾶M or Emerson (Real Betis) for 㿀M
4. Koulibaly – 㿔M
5. Danny Ings or Tammy Abraham or Diagne (West Brom) or Ivan Toney – 㾻-30M

Total purchases roughly about 𧴰-150M.

Net outgo between 㿔 to 㿲M. I think Moshiri will sanction a net spend of 㿞M, that would be the wise thing to do. Keep the spending sensible, do a couple of smart loans (like Moyes and Martinez used to do), sell off the unproductive players, even though it may be at a loss, and keep our expectations realistic.

Or, I hope that Brands can find us a couple of uncut diamonds who go on to change the fortunes of Everton.

Warning: You are going to read of fantasy football posts like this from me over the summer. :-)

Danny O’Neill
31 Posted 28/05/2021 at 12:54:03
I forgot about Mina, Ajay.

Again, not a player I'd like to let go and I'd rather move Keane on, but I think Mina is more sellable than Keane.

Can I add Sabitzer from Leipzig to the wish list?

Steve Brown
32 Posted 28/05/2021 at 13:02:00
The team the Echo posted would excite many of us:

Pickford
Aarons Koulibaly Godfrey Digne
Bissouma Allan Doucoure
Bailey Calvert-Lewin Richarlison

Boom.

Robert Tressell
33 Posted 28/05/2021 at 13:13:41
Steve, that would be an excellent side by our standards but it would likely require an outlay of about 𧵎M. We can't afford all 4 because we just won't generate enough from departures. That's the point of this thread.

It also leaves us with an extremely threadbare second XI with no experienced reserve goalie. And good though that side is, it would still struggle to get in the Top 4 because it's not as good as them – especially when you take into account what they have on the bench.

Steve Brown
34 Posted 28/05/2021 at 13:22:05
I know, Robert, I was just dreaming for a moment with a big 'If only'!
Soren Moyer
35 Posted 28/05/2021 at 13:30:23
I would really consider selling Richarlison if some club had 㿲M to burn and get any of the following: Neto, Troussard or Cuedes.
Steve Brown
36 Posted 28/05/2021 at 13:55:26
Yep Soren, sell Richarlison and play Gordon when he returns from loan. With the fee from Kean we could revamp the squad with the additional 50 million from Moshiri.
Soren Moyer
37 Posted 28/05/2021 at 14:43:47
Steve, I have nothing against Gordon but I think it will be a little too soon for him to be involved in the 1st team. If we sell Richarlison, there are plenty of better (and cheaper) options to replace him. I just hope we do our transfer affairs early before other clubs cherry pick the better players, i.e. the shite just bought Konta and Leicester is about to agree a deal with, once our target, Souma from Lille. I'd say if Aarons is not a target anymore, go get Celik (Lille) as they are in need of cash, and Cuedes from Valencia (reportedly available for the cut price of 13m as they need to sell to balance their books). And Please stay away from the cast offs of PL top 6 and no more deadwood from Barcelona/ Madrid!
Billy Bradshaw
38 Posted 28/05/2021 at 16:14:05
Tony @ 27 I'm still waiting for my smart ticket to arrive, my phone hasn't been switched off they will definitely arrive I think probably have to wait a bit longer until they get on top of all the renewals.
Craig Walker
39 Posted 28/05/2021 at 16:17:16
I know this might seem negative but I don't think 𧴜 million is anywhere near enough in order to make us competitive at the top end of the table again. At an average of 㿊 million pound a player that is just 3 new recruits. Unfortunately, I see issues all over the pitch.

Pickford had a good end to the season but we still probably need good backup.

I don't think we have enough good centre halves and it sounds like we will be listening to offers for Holgate. Keane's form nosedived as the season went on. I quite like Mina but he always has a mistake in him. Branthwaite could come back but that's asking a lot of the lad.

Everyone knows we need a replacement for Seamus at right-back.

We need to improve the central midfield options. I like Doucoure and Allan and Davies is a decent squad option but we need a good-value Mount or a Grealish type from somewhere. Allan won't play enough games in this league. I like his defensive qualities but he isn't going to help us at the other end of the pitch. I don't follow the transfer rumours as much as others but I could see us trying to bring Barkley back as a cheap option. Not sure whether Ross is not past it though.

We also desperately need pace from wide areas, in my opinion and we definitely need more of a goal threat from midfield, wide areas and up front. I could see us going for Zaha but this wouldn't represent good value for money. I'd like us to keep James but he isn't going to play every week - it seems crazy to build a team around someone who might play on average around 1 in 3 matches.

The only players which I think most fans would be happy with at the moment would be Godfrey, Pickford, Digne and DCL. I still rate Richarlison but he is probably one of are only real sellable assets.

The jury is still out on Brands, for me, but this summer will be a massive job for him to get out the deadwood and improve us. I can't see 𧴜 million being enough though.

Dave Abrahams
40 Posted 28/05/2021 at 16:20:51
Billy (38), Billy, what's the score with the smart phone ticket? What do people like me do, I've never had any sort of mobile phone, how will I gain entrance to the game?
Billy Bradshaw
41 Posted 28/05/2021 at 16:31:08
Dave@40 you can phone Goodison ticket office they still send out the old card system as well by post costs £5
Derek Moore
42 Posted 28/05/2021 at 16:41:58
Absolutely dire set of numbers.

I believe adequate reinforcements can be sourced if we're able to secure a good fee for Kean from PSG.

Robert Tressell wrote a very cogent post. (#9 and others). One point that really resonated for me was this.
"3. Arsenal, Everton and Spurs are the biggest mugs in the transfer market. Spending big (but not big enough) and getting nowhere - while clubs like Villa, West Ham and Leeds edge closer and closer or overtake."

I could not agree more. We ought to do what the smart competitors to the giants do in Germany, Belgium and Holland do. Have a low average squad age, feature talented younger players with an understanding they'll be allowed to move on when it suits and FFS try and source some talent elsewhere than the Premier League and Barcelona reject bins.

Poster James Flynn repeatedly mentions this and he's quite correct to do so. It needs to be Brands time now.

Barry Hesketh
43 Posted 28/05/2021 at 16:43:09
If we spend £100m on new recruits without selling others, we will be on the slippery slope to ruin. Remember this money doesn't come directly out of the pocket of Mr. Moshiri, this money is firmly on Everton's balance sheet.

We have to hope that Mr. Moshiri knows what he's doing because of his background in accountancy, but he wouldn't be the first or the last to get carried away with spending good money after bad.

Financial Fair Play may not be operating in the same way as it had previously, but economics doesn't alter, spend more than you earn and a business will soon find itself in trouble, regardless of the deepness of the owner's pockets.

Obviously, the major clubs all have huge debt, but they also have the financially lucrative commercial deals and worldwide fanbase to service that debt, can we rely on Moshiri and his friends to keep us out of trouble? Will the move to Bramley Moore Dock be delayed in order to rebuild the squad?

Somehow, Ancelotti and the management team have to get more out of the players we already have in the squad and hopefully, we'll see some improvement with one or two additions to fill the glaring gaps in the squad. Even if all of that happens, I remain doubtful that we can make a major assault on the top four or even the top six next season.

Mike Gaynes
44 Posted 28/05/2021 at 17:08:10
Paul, thanks for an informative article. Great response posts here as well.

Now here is some really jarring information I had not seen anywhere before. An ESPN article predicting that Harry Kane will NOT be sold (because of economic conditions) links to a month-old tweet from a financial football blogger called Swiss Ramble that shows Everton taking the worst financial pounding in the Prem from Covid:

" ...all clubs have been adversely impacted by COVID with no fewer than 11 in the Premier League posting losses above 㿞m to date in 2019/20, including #EFC 𧵄m and #MCFC 𧴵m."

https://twitter.com/SwissRamble/status/1387289836751622145

Thoughts from the congregation?

Barry Hesketh
45 Posted 28/05/2021 at 17:12:08
Mike @ 44
I think the congregation needs to fall to their knees and start praying! Of course, the Owner and board might discover a magic money tree growing somewhere in the world.
Derek Moore
46 Posted 28/05/2021 at 17:18:31
"Swiss Ramble" does appear very credible to my eyes Mike G, but my eyes have been accused of being not the best when numbers get bandied about!

Would be interested to hear what the Esk and the more football financials side of things savvy think though.

Good catch.

Barry Hesketh
47 Posted 28/05/2021 at 17:22:56
Is this Swiss Ramble guy a Kopite? I know from the past he does some good work and produces fairly accurate narratives on the economics of football in general - don't really understand why his tweets are so focused on the neighbours.
Rick Tarleton
48 Posted 28/05/2021 at 18:24:31
This is an intelligent article,based on economic realities. I can't in all honesty see many players in the squad who could be moved on. Godfrey, Calvert-Lewin, possibly Richarlison, Digne. After that we could struggle to make any profit on any of our regulars or fringe players.
Of the ones I mentioned, I'm not sure that I'd want to lose any of those five.
Moshiri may be willing to dig in his own pocket, but economically that may not be the answer.
We are a club with a tradition and huge expectations, whether we have the means to meet the hopes of our supporters is very dubious.
I wait and watch, but my expectations are not high.
Kieran Kinsella
49 Posted 28/05/2021 at 19:00:13
Mike 44

It seems like it's a buyers market. Seems as if a lot of clubs and players are anticipating sales but no one has money to buy them. For example, Ronaldo on 500k a week is doing his farewell on Instagram routine but who exactly is going to sign him. United apparently want to off load De Gea but the Mirror say it's an "Ozil situation" because no one can afford his 400k a week wage. Likewise Inter want to sell Lukaku by EOM to balance their books. Meanwhile Barce are apparently only bringing in free transfers, and Messi in view of no alternatives has signed a new deal that will be paid in IOUs over the next decade. All in all I expect limited activity early on then proably a flurry of creative, loans, exchanges, free transfers near deadline day.

Paul [The Esk]
50 Posted 28/05/2021 at 19:40:49
It should be remembered that in all this doom and gloom UEFA are going to enact their own quantative easing policy by borrowing €6bn and distributing it to the biggest clubs to provide liquidity to keep the bubble inflated
Barry Hesketh
51 Posted 28/05/2021 at 19:42:42
Paul @50
As prize money or some other method?
Paul [The Esk]
52 Posted 28/05/2021 at 19:50:24
As a loan Barry repaid out of future European revenues
Mike Gaynes
53 Posted 28/05/2021 at 20:19:16
Barry #47, I don't think so. I do know he's a Brit living in Switzerland, but it seemed to me in the past that he had shown himself a Gooner. I've never noticed any particular bias, however.

He had an informative post this week on the financial lopsidedness between tomorrow's finalists Swansea and Brentford.

Barry Hesketh
54 Posted 28/05/2021 at 20:24:01
Thanks, Paul, it'll be interesting to see how they go about distributing those loans and to which clubs and for what amounts.

I hadn't even questioned if he supported a particular team previously Mike, but those tweets seemed to be packed with how well the other lot were coping.

Phil (Kelsall) Roberts
55 Posted 28/05/2021 at 20:53:50
Andrew #11 - because the manager who did this now is the West Ham one.

We have to realise - for every seller, there has to be a buyer.
Scenario A - Team A is flush with cash and does not need to sell. You want a player from Team A. Who holds the power?
Scenario B - Team B is bust and trying to get players off the books to reduce the losses. You want a player from Team B. Who holds the power?
That is why some sell for a lot, and others for a little.

Did Swansea think we were going to walk away from Sigurdsson? Or Watford from Richarlison? Were we so secure in our league placing we did not need Tosun or Walcott? Did we check that players who are silky in low energy leagues are going to cut it in the rush of the Premiership (Gomes, Klaassen). Did we get seduced and ignore Total Cost of Ownership? Bernard is 𧴰k per week. That is 4 years at a cost of 㿅m. Same as 㾻m + 㿞kpw but now who wants to pay him 𧴰k per week so we have no re-sale option (Wow, 㾻m signing on fee and then at least we could sell. Now how is that for an option Marcel?).

We don't have a lot of power in buying or selling.

Michael Penley
56 Posted 28/05/2021 at 21:33:31
A lot of talk about cash in this article. Where does Moshiri keep it all, and wouldn't it be safer for him to use a bank?
Tony Ateman
57 Posted 29/05/2021 at 07:44:18
Billy (38) Thanks for the response. I'll just wait patiently!!!
Clive Rogers
58 Posted 29/05/2021 at 10:52:24
We are talking peanuts relatively. City owner Sheikh Massoud's family are reportedly worth £1 Trillion. A thousand billion £s in other words. Can't compete with that.
Brian Murray
59 Posted 29/05/2021 at 11:36:04
And to think that could easily of been us owned by the sheiks except for a small stipulation that some buffoon can carry on as a chairman! As for this summer if Brands is not at least identified and is half way down the line on his targets we should terminate the probably obscene contract he has. Granted getting iwobi siggy Delph Gomes Bernard Tosun kenny etc out the door is a big task. That's what he's paid to do. Oh and a big rethink on Carlos son and the rest of the training staff. Ex blues included. Or is that not the Everton way as well.
Billy Bradshaw
60 Posted 29/05/2021 at 12:12:34
Tony @57 keep a look out on the files/download app on your phone, they sent my ticket for the wolves game and a receipt for the season ticket to that,you will know when the season ticket comes it should have a bar code on it if they use the same system has they did for the last home game against wolves.
Dave Abrahams
61 Posted 29/05/2021 at 12:26:25
Billy (41), thanks for that, that will suit me.
Clive Rogers
62 Posted 29/05/2021 at 13:28:00
Brian, 59, you can add Allan to that list. For me he is way past his best and looked finished in the city game, had a shocker.
Phil Wood
63 Posted 29/05/2021 at 21:05:08
Whatever we do in the transfer market Please No more Walking Dead or Has Been Superstars.
Bill Watson
64 Posted 30/05/2021 at 00:50:02
I haven't had time to read through all the comments so apologies if my point has already been covered.

Transfers fees are rarely paid upfront. The cost is usually spread over the length of the contract.

So, if we sign a player for £30m, on a 5 year contract, the cost (excluding wages etc) on that year's balance sheet should surely be £6m.

Or, am I missing something?

Barry Hesketh
65 Posted 30/05/2021 at 01:39:38
"If we don't do well something should be done about it and something will be done about it."- John Moores
Alan J Thompson
66 Posted 30/05/2021 at 06:31:32
Bill(#64); I'm no accountant but if you are running at a loss and you spend more money then I'm fairly sure you have to show how you will make provision for paying off that debt and I think you are/were allowed to borrow up to twice your total share price. In the "normal" business world this could affect your share price which could cause a downward spiral and I'm not sure that promising to finish a lot higher than 10th in the League would fill the bill but as I say, I'm no accountant and perhaps somebody with greater knowledge in these matters might care to comment.
However, given the ever improving performance by the Marketing Dept this could be quite easily be a thing of the past.
Stop laughing down the back! No, not of the sofa, this could be serious!
Mark Murphy
67 Posted 30/05/2021 at 07:50:04
"Of the ones I mentioned, I'm not sure that I'd want to lose any of those five."

You do realise Rick, that Calvert Lewin is just one guy?

Sorry - couldn't resist...

Paul Hewitt
68 Posted 30/05/2021 at 08:27:54
I have serious fears that Moshiri is taking us to the financial brink. He may be a billionaire, but he doesn't have a clue about money. The figures Paul reported that we owe are frightening. This spend spend spend attitude is going to end very badly I'm afraid.
Tony Abrahams
69 Posted 30/05/2021 at 08:50:18
It's worrying Paul, especially for a man who made his fortune by being a brilliant accountant, unless the man who brought him on board, is eventually going to buy the club off his apprentice?
Joe McMahon
70 Posted 30/05/2021 at 08:50:38
Paul@68 fully agree, so much spent with no clear strategy. Scattergun spending without a clear plan is madness.
Alan J Thompson
71 Posted 30/05/2021 at 11:20:00
That might just be a bit of panic, lads.
Mr Moshiri is guaranteeing Everton's loans and has taken out, or will, an additional 33,333 shares raising 100 Million. If reports are to be believed then his personal fortune has doubled from one to two billion and while some of the players transferred in might look "scattergun" it is also backing his 1st team Manager. And then there is the matter of his even better heeled friend putting money into sponsorship and naming rights.

How does that compare to mortgaging your way out of debt? I know in which I have more confidence.

Derek Moore
72 Posted 31/05/2021 at 14:23:04
As long as asset prices are rising as rapidly as they are, Moshiri will be comfortable kicking in the cash. Our net spend this summer will be a good barometer of how confident our accountant owner is in more short term rises in the price of premier league clubs.
Philip Bunting
73 Posted 31/05/2021 at 17:23:31
We should be looking at one or two permanent signings and a few players on loan with options to buy if they prove their ability and desire to be winners. Not buying expensive cast-offs on large long-term contracts.

Hope you're listening, Moshiri; otherwise, Groundhog Day will repeat next season, as like the last few years. Build a team – not quick-fix it.

Jason Li
74 Posted 31/05/2021 at 18:09:31
Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld

Could be a nice cheap and youngish option and gettable.

Don't know much about him, but stats look very good for a Championship player at 24 years old. Right wing or Number 10.

Anyone think he can handle it in the Premier League?

Brian Wilkinson
75 Posted 01/06/2021 at 00:18:20
Michael @56, hopefully not the same hiding place Bill kept the Arteta money.
Colin Glassar
76 Posted 01/06/2021 at 09:00:07
Today, William Kenwright Esq is celebrating his 17th anniversary as Chairman of Everton FC.
Thomas Richards
77 Posted 01/06/2021 at 09:01:33
He's done well given the health issues rumoured a few years ago.
Derek Taylor
78 Posted 01/06/2021 at 12:37:55
With hindsight, isn't Chairman Bill to be congratulated on his management of EFC finances when we had no money to speak off but a 'reet canny' manager in Davey Moyes ?

At least we used to finish 'seventhish 'and the quality of football was usually worth watching - unlike Carlo's rubbish !


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